MDGs and UNDP
Millennium Project
Afghanistan Millennium Development Goals Report 2005

SUMMARY

¨ Security is critical for Afghanistan's reconstruction.Without an adequate level of security, not only will the country fail to achieve the Millennium Development Goals, but also progress achieved during the last four years will be reversed, increasing the likelihood of resumption of large-scale conflict.

¨ Considerable progress has been made by the Ministry of Defense, supported by the United States, to recruit, train, equip and field the Afghan National Army (ANA). The ANA has established nationwide presence since 2003 and fielded a brigade into each regional command. This has greatly facilitated the expansion of central government authority and the rule of law, supported DDR and will support revenue collection and counter-narcotics efforts.

¨ Establishing effective control over the use of armed forces is the foundation for all other progress in Afghanistan. Challenges to the creation of the new ANA include the training, equipping, fielding and paying of the Army. An estimated 17% of the GDP was allocated in the 2004-05 national budget for ANA. Over the next 15 years this is targeted to come down to 3-5%.Comparable to other developing countries, this is targeted to come down to 3-5% over the next 15 years.

¨ ANBP has been quite successful in the disarmament and demobilisation components of the DDR process. But in a fragile security environment, it will be impractical to aim for complete disarmament. Forcible disarmament of commanders and other powerful individuals may lead to increased insecurity.

¨ With the passing of a new gun law, a license is now required to possess a firearm. The licensing process offers an opportunity to reduce the incidence of firearms misuse and gun crime.¨ The human resource requirements for the ANP are substantial. In 2002, less than 10% of police officers were properly equipped and more than 80% of the infrastructure had been destroyed during the years of conflict.At the current rate, the training programmes are expected to meet the target of 62,000 trained personnel by late 2006.

¨ There are serious concerns about the fiscal sustainability of the proposed reforms, especially given the shortfall for LOTFA during its recent second phase, when only 40% of requested funds were received. The major donors are beginning to signal a shift away from completely underwriting the full recurrent budgetary expenses of the ANP. Further, the pace of proposed reforms in the justice sector has to be aligned with attempts to reform and restructure the police to increase the prospects of the police to reduce crime rates and instil confidence among the public.

¨ Landmines and unexploded ordnance (UXO) currently affect some four million Afghans. Only 2 provinces are wholly free of the problem. The unit cost of clearing the remaining identified and surveyed minefields in Afghanistan has been estimated at $1 per square metre In a situation where there is a large movement of population, and development and reconstruction projects impeded by mines/UXO, it is necessary to expand the de-mining programme and make faster progress toward eliminating the problem of landmines.

¨ Opium dominates the national economy. It accounts for one-third of estimated total GDP and 50% of legal GDP.The total area under poppy cultivation increased by nearly two-thirds during 2003-04. Even as the government attempts to reduce and eventually eliminate poppy cultivation, there is a risk that targeting poor farmers and landless labourers involved in poppy cultivation with elimination and law enforcement measures may increase poverty in the short-term, until genuine and sustainable alternative livelihoods can be developed.

¨ The cost of securing Afghanistan from terrorism, insurgency and tribal conflicts, organised crime, narcotics production and trafficking is high. The government needs to follow a two-pronged approach of sustaining high levels of economic growth while increasing domestic revenue to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability of the security-sector reforms.

AFGHANISTAN'S MDG TARGETS AND INDICATORS

==> Reform and professionalise the Afghan National Army by 2010

¨ Military expenditure as a percentage of GDP
¨ Professionally trained ANA
¨ Nationwide fielding of the ANA
¨ Operational capability of the ANA and ability to operate independently or with less support from Coalition/ISAF forces

==> Reform and professionalise the Afghan National Police by 2010

¨ Citizens' confidence in the ANP's ability to provide security and access to justice
¨ Reported crime to conviction ratio

==> Reduce the misuse of weapons and the proportion of illegally-held weapons by 2010

¨ Numbers of weapons licensed under the new gun law
¨ Gun crime as a proportion of overall crime

==> All emplaced antipersonnel mines destroyed by 2013. All other explosive contaminants destroyed by 2015

¨ Number of Highly Impacted Communities
¨ Total Number of Impacted Communities
¨ Number of Afghans Directly Affected
¨ Number of the mine/UXO victims (injured or dead)

==> All stockpiled antipersonnel mines destroyed by 2007. All other abandoned or unwanted explosive stocks destroyed by 2020

¨ Number of stockpiled antipersonnel mines destroyed
¨ Number of ERW stockpiles remaining to be destroyed

==> Reduce the contribution of opium to the total (licit and illicit) GDP to less than 5% by 2015 and to less than 1% by 2020

¨ Eliminate poppy cultivation by 2020
¨ Reduce the number of Afghans dependent on opium for their livelihood by 75% by 2015 and by 90% by 2020 from the 2004 level

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